Caste aspect will play a crucial role in the Coastal Andhra region where the Kapu community is strong and more in population. In Seemandhra region, the Kapu community has a heavy presence in 16 constituencies out of the 25 Lok Sabha segments. In ten Lok Sabha constituencies [Araku, Vizianagaram, Anakapalle, Kakinada, Amalapuram, Rajahmundry, Narasapur, Eluru and Machilipatnam] this community is very dominant. While in Visakhapatnam, Guntur and Narasarao Pet constituencies, it stands in second position and in Srikakulam, Vijayawada and Rajampet constituencies it ranks number three.
There has never been a Chief Minister from the Kapu community in the history of Andhra Pradesh despite the community leaders have requested Congress high command to make someone from their community as the CM. However, Congress did not show much interest but Kapus kept on shifting their support from Congress to TDP and viceversa.
In Andhra Pradesh, Kapu community shares 18 percent of the total population and after the bifurcation, the percentage has increased to 32. This is going to be very crucial in the upcoming elections as in about 80 Assembly segments from Guntur, Vizag, Krishna and Godavari dsitricts, Kapu votes are going to be turning point. After muslims, SCs & STs, Congress is eyeing this community but with the bifurcation, many are looking at TDP and YSRCP.
With the presence of Umareddy Venkateshwarlu, Ambati Rambabu kind of leaders, YSRCP is likely to gain more in Seemandhra region. Jagan has already realized the importance of Kapu votes and has been moving the above leaders to get upset leaders of Congress and TDP into his party. So far about 20 top Kapu leaders were identified by the Jagan and plans to woo them have already started. YSRCP is strong in Guntur district with Umareddy and Ambati whereas TDP is weak in spite of Galla Jayadev joining the party. Even Mahesh Babu's campaign may not fetch votes for Jayadev, so not to lose the Kapu votes, TDP has to assure something to the community leaders to satisfy them.
Chilakaluripeta, Pedakurapadu and Ponnuru segments there are huge number of voters from Kapu community and if all of them vote for YSRCP, TDP will have to complete vanish from the Guntur district. Coming to Sattenapalli, Ambati Rambabu is confirmed from YSRCP and there is no question of his defeat in the elections. The absence of muslim, SCs & STs votes to TDP is also a biggest minus for them giving ample of way to YSRCP.
Chandrababu Naidu is in backfoot with the political games of YSRCP. He should field more charismatic and popular candidates in the elections who have lot of influence among the people. In a way Mr. Naidu should attract the Kapu voters and assure them all the rights in the party as well as in government if TDP wins the elections.
However, to fulfill the demands of Kapu is a huge task and if TDP or YSRCP fails to deliver the promises, Kapus may launch a new political party and then this would bring more headaches. Prajrajyam Party which failed to fulfill the promises are still haunting the Kapu community and this time, they are in no mood to entertain any kind of failures.
Kapu community are not the rich ones and absence of business tycoons is a set back for this group. But then to establish a government in the residuary Andhra Pradesh, Telaga, Balija, Kapu, Ontari [altogether called as Kapu Community] should be brought under one platform. However there is a threat for both TDP and YSRCP if Pawan Kalyan establishes a political party. Though Pawan is against caste, the sentiment factor will favor Pawan and votes may split and in this TDP will get affected a lot. On the other hand, Kapu leaders are completely ignoring Kiran's party.
Anyways let us see who will be smart! Chandrababu, Jagan or Kiran... we will get to know on May 16th.